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As global leaders assemble in the Brazilian Amazon for Cop30, it is crucial to evaluate how we are faring together in lowering worldwide emissions of greenhouse gases.

Despite three decades of UN climate summits, approximately half of the CO2 built up in the atmosphere after the dawn of industrialization has been emitted since 1990. Coincidentally, 1990 marked the publication of the First Assessment Report by the IPCC, which verified the threat of anthropogenic climate change. As scientists work on the upcoming IPCC report, they do so aware that scientific findings remains overshadowed by political agendas. Despite sincere attempts, the world is still dangerously off track to avert dangerous global warming.

Record-Breaking CO₂ Levels and Fossil Fuel Dependency

Latest figures show that atmospheric carbon dioxide levels reached a new peak of 423.9 parts per million in 2024, with the growth rate from 2023 to 2024 surging by the largest yearly increase since record-keeping started in the late 1950s. Based on the international carbon monitoring initiative, ninety percent of worldwide carbon dioxide output in last year came from burning fossil fuels, while the other tenth resulted from land-use changes such as forest clearance and wildfires.

Although the increase in fossil CO₂ emissions in recent times was propelled by increased use of natural gas and petroleum—accounting for over half of global emissions—the use of coal also attained a historic peak, constituting forty-one percent. Despite Cop28’s global stocktake urging nations to transition away from fossil fuels, global strategies still intend to produce more than double the amount of hydrocarbons in 2030 than is consistent with keeping planet heating to 1.5C, with ongoing drilling of natural gas rationalized as a lower emission transition fuel.

The Mirage of Eco-Friendly Measures

Instead of focusing on financial motivators to accelerate the phase-out of carbon fuels, climate policies are heavily reliant on feelgood eco-positive approaches that seek to cancel out carbon emissions by planting trees rather than reducing factory discharges. While conserving, enlarging, and rehabilitating ecological absorbers like woodlands and wetlands is beneficial in itself, studies has shown that there is not enough land to achieve the global goal of carbon neutrality using nature-based solutions by themselves.

Approximately 1 billion hectares—an area larger than the United States of America—is required to meet net zero pledges. More than 40% of this land would need to be converted from existing uses like agriculture to carbon capture initiatives by 2060 at an unprecedented rate.

Although this regenerative utopia could be achieved, forests take time to mature and are susceptible to fires, so they should not be viewed as a fast or permanent carbon storage solution, particularly in a rapidly shifting climate. As severe temperatures and aridity engulf more of the planet, these well-intentioned efforts could literally be destroyed by fire.

The Diminishing of Planetary Absorbers

Research data tells us that about half of the carbon dioxide released each year remains in the atmosphere, while the remainder is absorbed by seas and land ecosystems. As the planet warms, these natural carbon sinks are becoming less effective at capturing CO₂, which means that more carbon builds up in the air, intensifying global warming. Shifting the mitigation burden onto the land sector effectively excuses the fossil fuel industry from the urgency to cut pollution any time soon.

The Carbon Debt and Coming Populations

Achieving carbon neutrality by mid-century demands CO2 extraction (CDR), which at present relies almost exclusively on terrestrial methods to soak up excess carbon from the atmosphere. Emitting companies can easily purchase offsets to counterbalance their discharges and continue with business as usual. Meanwhile, the planetary heat imbalance caused by the burning of fossil fuels continues to further disrupt the global climate system. In effect, we are adding more carbon debt to our global account, passing on our descendants with an unpayable liability.

To curb the scale and duration of overshoot the Paris Agreement temperature goals, the planet eventually needs to go well beyond the neutralising effect of carbon neutrality and begin to remove cumulative historical emissions to achieve net negative emissions.

The Policy Misrepresentation of Carbon Neutrality

Based on the latest numbers from the international carbon research group, plant-based carbon removal is presently capturing the equivalent of about 5% of yearly CO2 from fuels, while engineered carbon extraction accounts for only about a tiny fraction of the CO2 emitted from fossil fuels. More generous industry estimates suggest around 0.1% of total global emissions. At the risk of sounding like a heretic, the policy twisting of net zero is a deceptive gap that distracts from the scientific imperative to eliminate the main source of our overheating planet—fossil fuels.

The Critical Requirement for Definite Steps

While this scientific reality should lead discussions at Cop30, past events indicates that gradual, cautious steps and political kowtowing will prevail. Ambiguous promises of long-term goals will keep on postpone the urgent need for definite short-term measures. Unless policymakers have the courage to put a price on carbon to terminate the age of hydrocarbons, we are adding more and more carbon to the air, compounding the physical catastrophe now unfolding across the globe.

The dilemma we confront is simple: genuinely respond to the evidence-based situation of our predicament or suffer the consequences of this deep ethical lapse for generations ahead.